THE MESS IN ALASKA – AT 7:09 P.M. ET:  We haven't paid much attention to Alaska, buy should have.  You'll recall that insurgent Joe Miller defeated incumbent Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski for the GOP Senate nomination.  Miller had the support of Sarah Palin.  Murkowski then came back to the race as a write-in candidate.

Well, Miller hasn't exactly run a stellar campaign.  He strikes many people as abrasive, he hid some embarrassing moments in his past, and there is an aura of unattractiveness about him.  Now, a new poll shows him slipping from first to third place, just five days before the election.  And who is in the lead?  Incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski.  If she wins as a write-in, she would still be considered a Republican senator, but her victory would be a severe blow, in her home state, to Sarah Palin.  Murkowski is a blood opponent of Palin, who defeated Murkowski's father for the governorship.  Miller's decline is trouble for Sarah.

If Murkowski wins, and it's a big "if" since people have to physically write in her name, and if Christine O'Connell is defeated in Delaware, it will mark two races in which assaults on Republican incumbents backfired.  In Delaware, O'Donnell defeated Republican Congressman Mike Castle for the GOP Senate nomination.  But Castle would have easily won the seat – he was way ahead in the polls – and now O'Donnell is way behind.

Alaska and Delaware may well provide much for us to chew on the next day.  Insurgency has its place, but it can also prove terribly self-destructive, and care must be taken.  Both Miller and O'Donnell are Tea Party candidates, as is Sharron Angle, who is struggling to defeat Harry Reid in Nevada, a race the GOP thought it had put away earlier this year, before Angle, a controversial candidate, was nominated in a surprise primary finish.  (If current trends hold, and we get an honest count, Angle should still squeeze by.)

Elections are about winning.  There is no prize for second place.  Let's remember that Tuesday night.

October 28, 2010